World Cup 2026Group ITeams, Fixtures & Odds

France are the clearcut group favourite, having conceded just four goals across their entire UEFA qualifying campaign. Norway are the dark-horse story — back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998 after an eight-win, eight-game qualifying sweep (37 goals scored, five conceded), capped by a 1–4 demolition away at Italy in November 2025. Senegal arrive ranked 14th globally with Mane (53 international goals) and Nicolas Jackson (10 goals in 11 Bundesliga starts on loan at Bayern Munich in 2025–26). Iraq won an intercontinental playoff 2–1 against Bolivia in Monterrey.

France have the depth to win the tournament outright. Kylian Mbappe — fit again after an April semitendinosus injury — needs two more World Cup goals to become France's all-time record scorer. Dembele arrives as reigning Ballon d'Or winner. One caution: a rotated side lost 1–2 to Ivory Coast on 4 June with second-half defensive lapses. Saliba is being managed through a back issue. This is Deschamps' final tournament after 14 years.

Norway swept qualifying without a dropped point and beat Sweden 3–1 in a warm-up with both Haaland and Odegaard rested. Haaland scored 16 qualifying goals — equalling Lewandowski's UEFA group-stage record — and became the fastest player to 50 international goals (in 46 caps). Odegaard captains the side but his knee-troubled club season is a sharpness watch. Norway's 4–3–3 presses high and builds danger through Haaland centrally.

Senegal are second favourites. Mane (two goals in the USA warm-up on 31 May) is 34 and playing his likely final World Cup. CAF stripped Senegal of the AFCON 2025 title — won 1–0 over Morocco on the pitch — handing Morocco a 3–0 forfeit after Senegal walked off in stoppage time. Mane publicly opposed the walk-off. An appeal is live at the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Iraq are ranked 57th. Their ceiling is one surprise result — most plausibly against Norway on 16 June by sitting deep and counter-attacking into the space Norway's full-backs leave.

France vs Senegal (16 June, MetLife Stadium) opens the group. In 2002, Senegal beat France 1–0 in one of the tournament's signature upsets. A Senegal result here immediately compresses the second-place race.

Norway vs Senegal (22 or 23 June, MetLife Stadium) is the de facto second-place decider. RotoWire: "Senegal's path to the knockout rounds runs through the Norway game." Haaland vs Koulibaly is the headline duel. The exact date remains unreconciled across sources.

France finish first. Second place sits between Norway and Senegal, settled primarily by their direct fixture. Iraq can only progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams under the expanded format.