World Cup 2026Group LTeams, Fixtures & Odds

Opta's supercomputer (25,000 simulations) puts Group L qualification probability at 96.0% for England and 77.8% for Croatia, with Ghana at 49.7% and Panama at 39.0%. In the 48-team format, eight of twelve third-placed teams advance, which is the only realistic route for the underdogs.

England arrive with the group's cleanest qualifying record: eight wins, zero goals conceded, 22 scored across UEFA Group K — only the second European side to post a clean-sheet qualifying campaign, after Yugoslavia in 1954. Harry Kane scored both goals in the final-day 2-0 win over Albania (taking his tally to 78) and won the European Golden Shoe with 36 Bundesliga goals in 31 games. Bellingham plays No. 10 behind Kane; Rice screens the back four. Tuchel cut Foden, Palmer, Alexander-Arnold and Maguire, signalling form over reputation. Fitness questions around Livramento and Spence exist, but the attacking core is healthy. Opta rates England third-likeliest to win the tournament at 11.2%.

Croatia are the tournament's most reliable overachievers: 2018 finalists, 2022 third-place finishers. They won their UEFA qualifying group with 22 points from seven wins, scoring 26 and conceding four; Andrej Kramaric led scoring with six goals. Dalic trialed a 3-4-2-1 in a June 2 friendly loss to Belgium (0-2), an experimental shape rather than a form signal. Josko Gvardiol anchors the back three; Kovacic and Modric control midfield. Modric, 40, recovered from an April cheekbone fracture requiring surgery in Milan and was named regardless — heading to his fifth World Cup with Dalic saying he was "convinced that he will do everything to be ready." His June 17 fitness is the key Croatia variable.

Ghana qualified from CAF Group I with 25 points (8W-1D-1L). Their squad includes Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo and Thomas Partey; Jordan Ayew led qualifying scoring with seven goals. They are the realistic third-place contender if they win the underdog fixture.

Panama are making only their second World Cup appearance. Compact under Thomas Christiansen, they completed a six-year CONCACAF qualifying journey. Advancement runs almost entirely through beating Ghana.

The standard outcome is England first, Croatia second. The tension is the third spot.

Ghana vs. Panama — June 17, Toronto is the match that decides who stays alive. A win for either side gives them a fighting chance at a best-third place. A draw almost certainly eliminates both given the points England and Croatia will accumulate.

England vs. Croatia — June 17, AT&T Stadium, Dallas is the fixture that determines whether the group runs predictably or opens up. It is a 2018 semi-final rematch — Croatia beat England 2-1 in extra time in Moscow en route to the final. A Croatia win widens the window for the underdogs; an England win closes the group hierarchy. Tuchel's dynamic 4-2-3-1 vs. Dalic's new 3-4-2-1 — and Modric's fitness — make it the marquee Group L fixture.