Group L Preview & Predictions
World Cup 2026 Group L has a clear top two and a legitimate third-place race underneath. England and Croatia are the European contenders; Ghana and Panama are underdogs whose tournament lives will largely be settled against each other on matchday one.
Group Overview
Opta's supercomputer (25,000 simulations) puts Group L qualification probability at 96.0% for England and 77.8% for Croatia, with Ghana at 49.7% and Panama at 39.0%. In the 48-team format, eight of twelve third-placed teams advance, which is the only realistic route for the underdogs.
Team-by-Team Outlook
England arrive with the group's cleanest qualifying record: eight wins, zero goals conceded, 22 scored across UEFA Group K — only the second European side to post a clean-sheet qualifying campaign, after Yugoslavia in 1954. Harry Kane scored both goals in the final-day 2-0 win over Albania (taking his tally to 78) and won the European Golden Shoe with 36 Bundesliga goals in 31 games. Bellingham plays No. 10 behind Kane; Rice screens the back four. Tuchel cut Foden, Palmer, Alexander-Arnold and Maguire, signalling form over reputation. Fitness questions around Livramento and Spence exist, but the attacking core is healthy. Opta rates England third-likeliest to win the tournament at 11.2%.
Croatia are the tournament's most reliable overachievers: 2018 finalists, 2022 third-place finishers. They won their UEFA qualifying group with 22 points from seven wins, scoring 26 and conceding four; Andrej Kramaric led scoring with six goals. Dalic trialed a 3-4-2-1 in a June 2 friendly loss to Belgium (0-2), an experimental shape rather than a form signal. Josko Gvardiol anchors the back three; Kovacic and Modric control midfield. Modric, 40, recovered from an April cheekbone fracture requiring surgery in Milan and was named regardless — heading to his fifth World Cup with Dalic saying he was "convinced that he will do everything to be ready." His June 17 fitness is the key Croatia variable.
Ghana qualified from CAF Group I with 25 points (8W-1D-1L). Their squad includes Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo and Thomas Partey; Jordan Ayew led qualifying scoring with seven goals. They are the realistic third-place contender if they win the underdog fixture.
Panama are making only their second World Cup appearance. Compact under Thomas Christiansen, they completed a six-year CONCACAF qualifying journey. Advancement runs almost entirely through beating Ghana.
Qualification Scenarios and Key Fixtures
The standard outcome is England first, Croatia second. The tension is the third spot.
Ghana vs. Panama — June 17, Toronto is the match that decides who stays alive. A win for either side gives them a fighting chance at a best-third place. A draw almost certainly eliminates both given the points England and Croatia will accumulate.
England vs. Croatia — June 17, AT&T Stadium, Dallas is the fixture that determines whether the group runs predictably or opens up. It is a 2018 semi-final rematch — Croatia beat England 2-1 in extra time in Moscow en route to the final. A Croatia win widens the window for the underdogs; an England win closes the group hierarchy. Tuchel's dynamic 4-2-3-1 vs. Dalic's new 3-4-2-1 — and Modric's fitness — make it the marquee Group L fixture.
Who Advances: Predictions
1st: England. Flawless qualifying, elite firepower, organised defence. 2nd: Croatia. Tournament pedigree carries them past Ghana and Panama; the England opener is their real test. Third-place contender: Ghana. 49.7% advancement probability (Opta) is realistic if they win the head-to-head and earn a point elsewhere. Exit: Panama. The group's minnows face a near-impossible climb.
The Group
Four teams. The top two advance automatically, plus a route through for the best third-place sides across the groups.
→EnglandFirst matchJun 17 · Croatia
→CroatiaFirst matchJun 17 · England
PanamaFirst matchJun 17 · Ghana
GhanaFirst matchJun 17 · PanamaFixtures & Live Odds
A three-way market for each match — home, draw, away. Tap any price to back it in USDC on SX Bet.
Standings
The Group L table goes live after the first whistle — every team starts level on zero points. Here is the matchday schedule.
Who Qualifies
The top two teams in Group L go through to the round of 32 automatically. A third route exists too: the eight best third-place finishers across the twelve groups also advance, so a strong third-place record can still be enough.
With no clear favourite priced in the outright market yet, the live match odds above are the clearest read on how each game in the group is priced right now.
What the Market Says
Every price on this page comes from a live, two-sided market on the SX Bet exchange. The implied probability is simply that price as a percentage, and because these are real orders rather than a sportsbook's published line, the numbers move as money comes in.
When you back an outcome you are matched against another bettor, not a house, and your stake settles in USDC. For the full mechanics — how implied probability works and how to place your first bet — read the complete guide to betting on the World Cup.