World Cup 2026Group DTeams, Fixtures & Odds

United States (77.0% qualify, Opta Analyst): All three group games on home soil — SoFi Stadium (June 12, June 25) and Seattle (June 19). Christian Pulisic ended a long international scoring drought against Senegal on May 31, contributing a goal and assist (his eighth career game with both, behind only Landon Donovan among USMNT players). Folarin Balogun scored the winner in that 3-2 win. Key risk: centre-back Chris Richards tore two ankle ligaments on May 17, with Pochettino non-committal on his availability, and the midfield is thin behind Tyler Adams after Tanner Tessmann was cut injured.

Türkiye (73.0%): Back at a World Cup for the first time since 2002, with Real Madrid's Arda Güler (21) and Juventus's Kenan Yıldız as the attacking engine under Montella's 4-2-3-1, anchored by captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Their June 13 opener against Australia is the group's first hierarchy test.

Paraguay (64.3%): Sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying with 28 points, conceding just 10 goals in 18 matches — joint-second best in South America. Barros Schelotto's side defends deep; Miguel Almirón is the primary creative outlet. The USA beat them 2-1 in a November 2025 friendly, though Paraguay's defensive structure performs differently in competitive conditions.

Australia (58.8%): The group's longest shot. Popovic's side drew 1-1 with Switzerland on June 6 — Nestory Irankunda (20, Watford) struck the crossbar, Tete Yengi scored on debut — after a 1-0 loss to Mexico. Seventeen of 26 players are debutants. Lewis Miller's ruptured Achilles (February 2026) removes the right wing-back who started every qualifier; Harry Souttar's 6'7" presence makes set-pieces a genuine threat.

USA and Türkiye are the expected top-two finishers. The pivots: a Paraguay point on June 12 opens the group immediately; an Australia win over Türkiye on June 13 reshuffles everything. The expanded 48-team format advances eight of 12 third-placed teams, so a third-place finish on five or six points remains viable for both Paraguay and Australia.

USA vs Paraguay — June 12, SoFi Stadium is the group's tone-setter. Paraguay conceded just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers; a tight result here keeps the group open.

Australia vs Türkiye — June 13, Vancouver is flagged by Opta Analyst as the fixture that determines who fights for second behind the USA.

Türkiye vs Paraguay — June 19, Levi's Stadium is identified by RotoWire as the most likely decider for the second automatic qualification place: Güler, Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu against a defence built to absorb, with Almirón on the counter.