World Cup 2026Group DFinal Table, Fixtures & Analysis
Paraguay, Türkiye, Australia, and United States met in Group D at the 2026 World Cup. United States finished top and the group's top two advanced to the round of 32 — below are the final table, all six fixtures with their previews, and the analysis we published before the tournament.
Group D Preview & Predictions
Published before the tournament began, and kept here as written — the calls and probabilities below were made without knowing how the group would finish.
World Cup 2026 Group D is genuinely competitive. The United States, Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia all carry legitimate advancement scenarios — Opta Analyst puts every team above 58% to qualify. The USA's home advantage is the primary structural edge, not a wide quality gap.
Team-by-Team Outlook
United States (77.0% qualify, Opta Analyst): All three group games on home soil — SoFi Stadium (June 12, June 25) and Seattle (June 19). Christian Pulisic ended a long international scoring drought against Senegal on May 31, contributing a goal and assist (his eighth career game with both, behind only Landon Donovan among USMNT players). Folarin Balogun scored the winner in that 3-2 win. Key risk: centre-back Chris Richards tore two ankle ligaments on May 17, with Pochettino non-committal on his availability, and the midfield is thin behind Tyler Adams after Tanner Tessmann was cut injured.
Türkiye (73.0%): Back at a World Cup for the first time since 2002, with Real Madrid's Arda Güler (21) and Juventus's Kenan Yıldız as the attacking engine under Montella's 4-2-3-1, anchored by captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Their June 13 opener against Australia is the group's first hierarchy test.
Paraguay (64.3%): Sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying with 28 points, conceding just 10 goals in 18 matches — joint-second best in South America. Barros Schelotto's side defends deep; Miguel Almirón is the primary creative outlet. The USA beat them 2-1 in a November 2025 friendly, though Paraguay's defensive structure performs differently in competitive conditions.
Australia (58.8%): The group's longest shot. Popovic's side drew 1-1 with Switzerland on June 6 — Nestory Irankunda (20, Watford) struck the crossbar, Tete Yengi scored on debut — after a 1-0 loss to Mexico. Seventeen of 26 players are debutants. Lewis Miller's ruptured Achilles (February 2026) removes the right wing-back who started every qualifier; Harry Souttar's 6'7" presence makes set-pieces a genuine threat.
Qualification Scenarios
USA and Türkiye are the expected top-two finishers. The pivots: a Paraguay point on June 12 opens the group immediately; an Australia win over Türkiye on June 13 reshuffles everything. The expanded 48-team format advances eight of 12 third-placed teams, so a third-place finish on five or six points remains viable for both Paraguay and Australia.
Key Fixtures
USA vs Paraguay — June 12, SoFi Stadium is the group's tone-setter. Paraguay conceded just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers; a tight result here keeps the group open.
Australia vs Türkiye — June 13, Vancouver is flagged by Opta Analyst as the fixture that determines who fights for second behind the USA.
Türkiye vs Paraguay — June 19, Levi's Stadium is identified by RotoWire as the most likely decider for the second automatic qualification place: Güler, Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu against a defence built to absorb, with Almirón on the counter.
1st: United States. Home advantage plus an in-form attack supported by friendly wins over Paraguay (2-1) and Australia (2-1). Richards' fitness is the chief concern.
2nd: Türkiye. Güler–Yıldız gives them a creative ceiling Paraguay and Australia cannot match. A win in Vancouver on June 13 makes second near-certain.
Third/exits: Paraguay are the likeliest third-placed team on defensive solidity; whether that advances depends on other groups. Australia, with 17 debutants and a right wing-back injury, face the steepest climb.
Final Table & Fixtures
How the group finished, and all six matches in kickoff order — each linked to the full preview published before the game.
Frequently Asked Questions
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How did World Cup group qualification work?
Through the tournament, every price on this page came from a live, two-sided market on the SX Bet exchange. The implied probability is that price as a percentage — and because these were real orders rather than a sportsbook's published line, the numbers moved as money came in.
The World Cup books have settled, but the mechanic is unchanged on every market SX lists: you are matched against another bettor, not a house, and your stake settles in USDC. Read the complete guide →