World Cup 2026Group GTeams, Fixtures & Odds

Opta's 25,000-simulation model gives Belgium an 89.6% chance of advancing, Egypt 68.2%, Iran 64.3%, and New Zealand 47.8% in any form including best-third-placed scenarios. A structured hierarchy with a meaningful second-place race, not a wide-open group.

Belgium qualified from UEFA Group J unbeaten (W5 D3 L0, 29 goals scored). Kevin De Bruyne (34), Thibaut Courtois, and Romelu Lukaku are all expected at their fourth and likely final World Cup. Jeremy Doku contributed five qualifying goals and two assists. Two dropped-points draws with North Macedonia flagged Belgium's recurring struggle against compact low blocks — relevant in a group where Iran and New Zealand will both sit deep. Lukaku's match sharpness remains an open question after barely an hour of club football all season, though a stoppage-time goal in the June 2 friendly win over Croatia was a positive signal.

Egypt return to the World Cup for the first time since 1990. Mohamed Salah (67 international goals, nine in CAF qualifying) holds the all-time record in CAF World Cup qualifying history with 20 career qualifying strikes, and needs just two goals here to surpass Hossam Hassan's all-time Egypt record of 69. Omar Marmoush's Manchester City season makes him the second focal point. Hassan's 4-2-3-1 demands defensive compactness first — seven clean sheets and two goals conceded across 10 qualifying matches. The depth concern is real: 17 of 26 players are from Egyptian clubs, so the Salah-Marmoush combination must produce.

Iran counter-press under Ghalenoei and reportedly topped AFC qualifying Group A with 23 points — two ahead of Uzbekistan — though that figure is from aggregated sources, not a primary FIFA/AFC table. Mehdi Taremi scored 10 goals in 15 qualifying matches. Sardar Azmoun's absence is disputed: Iran's state agency IRNA cited injury, but multiple outlets including ESPN noted it followed reports of alleged "government disloyalty"; the actual reason is unconfirmed.

New Zealand qualified via Oceania's newly guaranteed direct slot and are ranked 85th globally. They have never won a World Cup finals match. Chris Wood's fitness is the central variable, though that concern comes from preview coverage rather than a primary confirmed source.

Belgium advance in virtually all scenarios (89.6% per Opta). The second spot comes down to three fixtures. Belgium vs Egypt — June 15, Seattle: a Belgium win puts Egypt under immediate pressure; an Egypt result opens the group. Iran vs New Zealand — June 15, Los Angeles: Iran's most winnable match — a slip here makes their path significantly harder. Egypt vs Iran — June 26, Seattle (simultaneous with New Zealand vs Belgium in Vancouver): the de facto second-place playoff. If Egypt draw or win, they qualify; if Iran win, they advance. Neither can afford a loss.