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To headline week 9 of Monday Night Football, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) against the red hot Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) at 8:15 p.m. ET. With an undefeated record and the recent addition of star receiver Deandre Hopkins, the Chiefs are widely regarded as the favourites in this high-profile midseason matchup. Check out this edition of The Betting Report for all the betting alpha you need to lock in some winning trades tonight!
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⏰ 8:15PM ET - Bucs vs. Chiefs
Pre-Match Overview
The moneyline odds on SX Bet are set at Bucs 4.71 (+371) and Chiefs 1.25 (-400) with the spread standing as Bucs +9.0 at 1.90 (-111) and Chiefs -9.0 at 2.01 (-101).
The Bucs are 4-4 against the spread compared to the Chiefs at 4-2-1. Pay attention to the total line as the Bucs are 6-2 and the Chiefs are 3-4 on the over this season. SX Bet has the total set to 45.5 with odds of 1.90 (-111) for the over and 2.04 (+104) for the under.
Preview
It's been an unusual season for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the stat line. Despite maintaining an impressive 7-0 record, Mahomes currently ranks third in the MVP race, but his play has been relatively ordinary by his standards. his 2024 stats place him outside the Top 10 in several advanced quarterback metrics, and he’s only averaging mid numbers for passing yards and touchdowns.
As of Week 9, Mahomes has thrown more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (8). He has been held without a touchdown pass in two games and has thrown two or more touchdowns in just three outings.
Tampa Bay's defence has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns this season, giving up 16 overall, with nine of those in the last two weeks. They saw Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins throw four touchdowns in Week 8 and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson do the same in Week 7.
The Buccaneers’ red zone defence has struggled recently, and they are also vulnerable to deep passes. They rank 26th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and 30th in opponent success rate per pass, surrendering 26 plays of 20 or more yards, including six over 40 yards.
Injuries have further complicated matters for their secondary, with top cornerback Jamel Dean on injured reserve, Tykee Smith in concussion protocol, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. questionable with a foot injury, creating potential weaknesses in their zone-heavy strategies.
Tampa Bay loves to blitz, ranking sixth in the league for frequency, but Mahomes excels at evading pressure and punishing teams that blitz. The Buccaneers have struggled against tight ends this season, and Travis Kelce has become Mahomes' primary weapon against the blitz, gaining momentum in recent weeks and scoring a touchdown in Week 8.
Prediction
Expect the Chiefs to come away with another close-fought win that does not cover the spread. Further, I see the Chiefs taking their time with the ball to minimize Tampa's opportunities on offence creating a low to mid scoring game.
🔒Spread: Bucs +9.0
🔒Total: Under 45.5
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