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NFL Betting Strategies - How to Guarantee Profit with SX Bet
- SX Intern
- Oct 3, 2024
- 7 min read
Here is a breakdown of four strategies to ensure long-term ROI from sports betting.
1. Arbitrage Betting
What is Arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting is a strategy where bettors place simultaneous bets on different sportsbooks or exchanges for the same game. If done correctly, arbitrage bettors can guarantee profits in any market where they find a significant difference in odds between bookmakers. Sports betting arbitrage exploits these discrepancies in odds offered by different sportsbooks or betting exchanges to ensure a payout.
When moneylines, point spreads, and totals are created, the odds are set for the implied probability of both sides of the market to equal 100% - assuming there is no vig. In the image above, Pinnacle set the Baltimore Ravens line at -145 (59.2%), which would mean with a 0% vig, the Bills line would be +145 (40.8%). An arbitrage opportunity occurs when there is a discrepancy in the odds being offered between two different bookmakers, and the sum of the implied probability of two opposite outcomes equals less than 100%. Taking SX Bet’s odds of Ravens -127 (55.9%) and Bills +145 (40.8%) on Pinnacle, the implied probability equals 96.7%. This allows for a guaranteed profit when betting on both sides.
How to Arbitrage bet
Sign up for multiple sports betting platforms
First, Sign up for SX Bet as the industry-leading odds will allow users to always find discrepancies between betting sites. Creating multiple accounts with different betting companies will significantly improve the chances of finding arbitrage bets. For example, comparing six sites will provide far more opportunities to find market inefficiencies than comparing just three sports betting sites. Bettors can also place wagers on different outcomes within the same betting company to effectively execute arbitrage strategies - this tactic is better known as hedging.
Select an NFL match to bet on
Below we see the moneyline odds for the Pats to beat the Jets are 3.45 (American +245) on SX Bet.
Now let’s say there was an inefficiency in the market and another sportsbook offered 1.57 (American -175) for the Jets to win. Here is an opportunity for arbitrage betting to guarantee a profit.
Make the bets
Bet #1:
Bookmaker A
New England Patriots Moneyline
Total bet: $31.27
Odds: 3.45 (+245)
Payout: $107.90
Bet #2:
Bookmaker B
New York Jets Moneyline
Total bet: $68.73
Odds 1.57 (-175)
Payout $107.90
With a total of $100 staked on the game, no matter which team wins, there will be a profit of $7.90 with an ROI of 7.90%.
Formula:
(Winning bet payout - Winning bet size) - losing bet = Profit
If Bet #1 wins → ($107.90 - $31.27) - $68.73 = $7.90
If Bet #2 wins → ($107.90 - $68.73) - $31.27 = $7.90
Why Use SX Bet for Arbitrage Betting
SX Edge is a 3rd party, community-built platform that monitors odds on SX Bet and Pinnacle, and sends an alert any time there is an arbable offer available on the SX Bet exchange.
Turn on post notifications for SX Edge on X, to receive a notification any time arbable bets are available!
SX Bet’s peer-to-peer betting exchange model often brings the best pre-game odds in the WORLD for major sporting events! Having opinionated market makers compete against each other to provide the best offer typically generates arbitrage opportunities for SX Bet users.
Bills vs Dolphins
Patriots vs Jets
Sports bettors can take advantage of these industry-leading odds for arbitrage betting because there will almost always be a discrepancy between SX Bet and another platform. When Arbitrage betting, utilize SX Bet to make the most value bets, then sort through other betting platforms to find the largest odds discrepancies. While arbitrage betting is legal, betting companies may cancel bets and limit accounts to protect their business interests. SX Bet will never cancel bets, ban, or limit users!
Sign up to SX Bet to receive betting reports for PrimeTime games and see bookmaker comparisons for arbitrage opportunities. Betting reports can also be found here on the SX blog.
2. +EV Betting
What is +EV Betting (Positive Expected Value Betting)
Betting with +EV ensures that bettors are wagering on opportunities where the odds are in their favour, theoretically leading to long-term profitability. The goal is to identify situations where the sportsbook is underestimating the likelihood of an event, offering odds that pay better than they should. Over time, placing +EV bets should yield a consistent, positive return, although individual results can vary.
Formula:
If EV is positive, the bet is +EV, meaning it is profitable over the long run.
If EV is negative, the bet is -EV, meaning it will likely lose money in the long run.
How to find +EV bets
There are several ways to find +EV bets:
Put in the research
Get them for free with SX Bet
Put in the research
Use a sharp book like Pinnacle’s odds as a market-based method to determine the “true probability” a bet wins, as they are known for having some of the industry's sharpest (most accurate) lines.
For example,
If Pinnacle offers +150 (decimal 2.50) on Team A to win, the implied probability of that team winning is 40%.
If SX Bet offers +170 (decimal 2.70) on Team A to win, the implied probability of that team winning is 37%
Here, we see that the market maker on SX Bet is undervaluing the likelihood of Team A winning, making it a +EV bet.
Payout for $100 bet: $270
Actual estimated probability of winning: 40%
Using the formula:
We see that this bet has an EV of +48, meaning, over time, the bettor is expected to make $48 for every $100 wagered on this line, making it a profitable bet.
Free +EV plays from SX Bet
Lucky for you, SX Bet does the heavy lifting and calculations to find and flag +EV opportunities on the SX Bet exchange so you don’t have to.
The SX Edge website also aggregates +EV and arable offers on SX. The site is updated every few minutes to reflect the most current data.
Receive alerts about +EV offers via the SX +EV Telegram channel. Large +EV offers are sent into this channel daily. Subscribe here!
For a more in-depth look at +EV Betting, please visit +EV Betting Guide
3. Promos & Tournaments
Promos are an incredible way to be rewarded for betting on the NFL and other sports! It is important to utilize accessible promos as they can bolster the expected value of bets, reward users with free cash, and help generate long-term profits.
Keep an eye on the promos page as SX Bet consistently releases offers like Bet 100 Get 100. SX Bet's dynamic promotions allow consistent bettors to be rewarded with more lucrative opportunities to win!
If you are looking to make some extra money while betting, SX Bet offers tournaments where you can compete against other users for rewards!
SX is kicking off the return of the NFL with weekly tournaments all season long. Compete with other bettors for a $2,000 weekly prize pool where the top finisher of the week will receive $1,000 and the biggest loser will earn $1,000 in bet credits.
To sweeten the pot, the top 3 players from each week will secure a spot in the private $10K NFL Playoffs Tournament beginning January 12th.
SX Bet is dropping another major all-sports tournament to make your September a rich one with $50K in rewards!
From September 8th to October 8th, bet on any market from any chain and stack your returns to climb the leaderboard and earn your share of a $50k prize pool! Rewards will be 50% $SX and 50% bet credits. Don’t miss out on your opportunity to compete against other users for the chance to win big this month! This is a RETURN style tournament, losing bets does not hurt your standings.
4. Hedging Bets
What is Hedging?
Hedging is a strategy bettors can use to ensure winnings on an existing bet. Hedging bets follow the same principles of the financial risk management strategy used to offset potential losses in investments. However, when the time comes, bettors can use it to guarantee profit!
Hedging bets involves taking both sides of the line so the bettor is essentially betting against themselves once the odds have changed for a specific market.
How to Hedge Bets
Bettors cannot plan to hedge but sometimes the opportunity will present itself. Below are the steps to hedge a bet.
Bet on the underdog
Bets must be placed on the team with less than a 50% chance of winning (decimal: >2.0, American: >+100).
Underdog becomes favourite
If the underdog goes up early and becomes the new favourite during the match, the other team now becomes less likely to win and their odds will shift.
Bet on the new underdog
Since the odds have shifted for the original favourite to below 50% (decimal: >2.0, American: >+100). Betting on them now, no matter which team wins, will secure a profit as long as the same stake is placed.
Hedging Example
Betting lines at the start of the game:
Team A Moneyline: -300 or 1.33
Team B Moneyline: +300 or 4.0
Initial bet:
$100 on team B at +300 or 4.0 odds - Profit: $300
*Team B miraculously scores two touchdowns and has a 0-14 lead at halftime.*
Betting lines at halftime:
Team A Moneyline: +200 or 3.0
Team B Moneyline: -200 or 1.5
Halftime bet:
$100 on team A at +200 or 3.0 odds - Profit $200
Result:
Team A wins
Halftime bet profit - Initial bet = Profit
$200 - $100 = $100
Team B wins
Initial Bet profit - Halftime bet = Profit
$300 - $100 = $200
In this case, the bettor is cheering for Team B as it will result in a larger profit, but by hedging the bet during halftime, it will guarantee at least a $100 profit.
Recap
This document outlines four sports betting strategies that will help users ensure long-term ROI betting on the NFL with SX Bet.
Arbitrage Betting
+EV Betting
Promos & Tournaments
Hedging Bets
Check out the home of the best pregame betting odds in the World at SX Bet and let's make some money!💰💰💰
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