Finding +EV Opportunities on SX Bet

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A Guide to Finding +EV Bets on SX (Spoiler: It’s Easy)

In sports betting, consistently making profitable bets is not just about luck or intuition; it’s about finding bets with positive expected value (+EV). 

Betting with +EV ensures that you’re wagering on opportunities where the odds are in your favor, theoretically leading to long-term profitability. 

In this guide, we’ll explore what +EV betting is, how to find +EV bets on SX Bet, and some key considerations for using this strategy effectively.

What is +EV Betting, and Why Is It Profitable? 📈

Expected value (EV) measures the average outcome of a bet over time. In betting, +EV (positive expected value) occurs when you place a wager where the potential profit outweighs the risk, based on the probabilities involved. 

When a bet has +EV, it means you are expected to make a profit if you placed the same wager multiple times under the same conditions. 

The idea is simple: you are identifying situations where the sportsbook is underestimating the likelihood of an event, offering odds that pay better than they should. Over time, placing +EV bets should in theory yield a consistent, positive return, although individual results can vary.

How Expected Value Is Calculated ➕

The formula for expected value is:

EV = (probability of winning x payout) - (probability of losing x amount bet)

• If EV is positive, the bet is +EV, meaning it’s profitable over the long run.

• If EV is negative, the bet is -EV, meaning it’s likely to lose money in the long run.

  
  

The key to success is finding bets where the potential returns justify the risks, based on the implied probability of the event.

How to find +EV Bets 🔍

While you can create your own statistical model to estimate the true probability that a bet wins, it’s much easier to use a sharp book like Pinnacle’s odds as a market-based method to determine the “true probability” a bet wins, as they are known for having some of the sharpest lines in the industry. 

Let’s look at an example of a +EV Bet.

• Pinnacle offers odds of +150 (decimal 2.50) on Team A to win.

• The implied probability of Team A winning, according to Pinnacle, is:

Implied probability = 1 / 2.50 = 0.4 = 40%

Now, imagine you see odds on SX Bet are +170 (decimal 2.70) for the same bet. The implied probability of this bet is:

Implied probability = 1 / 2.70 = 0.37 = 37%

This discrepancy in the odds between sportsbooks offers you a potential +EV opportunity, as the market maker on SX is theoretically undervaluing Team A’s chances compared to the actual probability.

Assuming Pinnacle’s implied probability (40%) is the closest we can get to the actual probability, we can calculate the EV, or expected value, for the +170 bet on SX:

• Payout for a $100 bet: $270.

• Your estimated probability of winning: 40%.

• Probability of losing: 60%.

  
  

Now, apply the EV formula:

EV = (0.40 * 270) - (0.60 x 100)

EV = 108 -60 = +48

This bet has a positive expected value of +48, meaning, over time, you are expected to make $48 for every $100 wagered on this line, making it a profitable bet.

How to Find +EV Bets (on SX Bet) ✅

While there are a number of +EV tools available to help you find +EV opportunities, they often come with a sizeable price tag, and are not always easy to use, especially for beginners.

Lucky for you, SX Bet does the heavy lifting and calculations to find and flag +EV opportunities on the SX Bet exchange so you don’t have to. Thanks to SX Bet’s peer-to-peer exchange model, +EV odds arise frequently, and with significant depth, as opinionated market makers compete against one another to have the best offer!

SX Edge Alerts 🚨

SX Edge is a 3rd party, community-built platform that monitors the odds on SX Bet and Pinnacle, and sends an alert any time there is a +EV offer available on the SX Bet exchange.

You can turn on post notifications for SX Edge on X, to receive a notification any time +EV odds are available!

The SX Edge website also aggregates EV and arbable offers on SX. The site is updated every few minutes to reflect the most current data.

SX Edge also displays a plethora of other useful information for bettors, like whale wallets, and details on recent trades made on SX Bet.

Follow SX Edge on Twitter (X) and turn on post notifications 🔔 so you never miss an alert!

SX +EV Telegram Channel 💬

You can also receive alerts about +EV offers via the SX +EV Telegram channel. Large +EV offers are sent into this channel daily. You can subscribe to the channel here.

Each message includes the line to bet, the odds on Pinnacle, the vig-free Pinnacle odds, and a link to the market. Click the link and hit the offer, it’s as simple as that.

What are Vig-Free Odds?

Every sportsbook builds a profit margin into their odds. This is called the vig (or juice), and it makes the total implied probabilities of all outcomes add up to more than 100%. To find the true probability of an event, we need to "remove the vig”.

This process will give you a more accurate estimate of the true probability of each outcome.

Once you know the true probability, you can compare it to the odds offered by SX to determine if the bet is +EV.

In the SX +EV Alerts channel, we do this for you.

Key Considerations for +EV Betting

1. Bankroll Management: Even with +EV bets, variance (swings in results) can be significant. Effective bankroll management ensures you can handle short-term losses without going broke. Many professional bettors use the Kelly Criterion to determine optimal bet sizing based on their perceived edge.

   
   

2. Understanding Variance: Betting with +EV does not mean you will win every bet. Variance, or short-term randomness, is a part of betting. You may go on losing streaks even with +EV bets, but over the long term, the profitability will manifest in theory.

   
   

3. Emotional Discipline: Sticking to +EV betting requires discipline. It’s tempting to chase losses or deviate from your strategy when things aren’t going well. Stay focused on the long-term goal: profitability over hundreds or thousands of bets, not immediate wins.