Phoenix's Injury Crisis Changes the Entire Competitive Picture
There is no way to write about this game without leading with the most consequential single fact: Devin Booker will not play. Phoenix's franchise cornerstone, averaging 26.1 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game on his way to what has been an All-NBA caliber season, has been ruled out with right ankle injury management ahead of this Play-In game. The Suns are choosing to protect him — presumably for the first round of the playoffs, if they advance — rather than risk further damage in an elimination game.
But Booker's absence is only the beginning of Phoenix's personnel crisis. Grayson Allen is out with a hamstring injury — there goes 16.5 points per game and some of the best three-point shooting in their rotation. Dillon Brooks is out with a hand injury. Royce O'Neale is out with a knee injury. Combined, Phoenix is missing four rotation players who collectively represent the backbone of their defense and a large portion of their offensive output. Mark Williams, Jalen Green, Collin Gillespie, and Haywood Highsmith are all listed as questionable heading into tip-off. Even in a scenario where all four questionables suit up, the Suns are taking the floor with a dramatically diminished roster against a Portland team that has just gone 7-3 over its last 10 games.
The Suns have been building this season around Booker as the singular creation mechanism. His 6.0 assists per game represent the connective tissue of their offense — he doesn't just score, he generates looks for the players around him. Without him, the offensive burden falls on a depleted supporting cast that has no established primary creator to absorb that role. Phoenix averaged 112.6 points per game on the season and scored 115.1 per game in their last 10, but those numbers were compiled with Booker and Allen in the lineup. The offensive ceiling on a healthy-adjacent version of this roster is meaningfully lower.
Portland's 7-3 Run and the Case for an Upset
Portland has earned the right to be taken seriously in this spot. The Trail Blazers have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games, with a defensive profile that has been quietly elite in that stretch — just 105.2 points allowed per game, a number that would rank among the league's top defenses for the full season. Over the same 10 games, they've scored 118.3 per game, building a scoring margin that reflects real quality rather than a soft schedule.
Deni Avdija has emerged as one of the more versatile offensive weapons in the Western Conference, and his performance against Sacramento on April 13th — 25 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds on 9-for-19 shooting with 5-for-9 from three — is exactly the kind of all-around game that wins elimination matchups. He's averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists on the season, but it's the playoff-readiness of his skill set that matters most here. Against a Phoenix defense now missing Booker, Allen, O'Neale, and Brooks — the four players best positioned to slow him down — Avdija faces the most favorable defensive matchup of his season. He is going to see defensive attention from players who have not been asked to guard ball-handlers of his caliber all year.
Jrue Holiday provides the complementary piece that gives Portland real credibility in this spot. The veteran guard, who has played in these elimination-game environments before, posted 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists against Sacramento the day before this game. His 18.2 points per game over the last five, combined with his 6.6 assists per game in that stretch, make him Portland's second engine behind Avdija. Donovan Clingan anchors the front court at 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game on the season, giving Portland a rim presence that Phoenix's undermanned frontcourt will struggle to contain. Portland's only notable injury — Shaedon Sharpe on a minutes restriction following his return from a fibula stress reaction — is a genuine concern for their depth, but it doesn't alter the fundamental read on this matchup.
The Head-to-Head Record Portland's Side Will Point To
Phoenix leads the season series 2-1, but the most important data point from these three meetings is the final one. On February 23rd, Portland traveled to Phoenix and won 92-77 — a 15-point road victory in what was a historically low-scoring game for both teams. The 169 total points in that contest reflected defensive grinding and offensive limitations that produced one of the ugliest scores of the season, and the Suns lost at home by double digits.
That February 23rd result is the most relevant piece of evidence for tonight's game because it represents the most recent meeting and the version of this matchup that most closely approximates the competitive conditions of the Play-In. Phoenix was not at full health for that February game either, and Portland's defensive pressure was sufficient to limit the Suns to 77 points on their own floor. The two earlier Phoenix wins in the series — a 127-110 road victory in November and a 130-125 home win in February — both came when the roster compositions and competitive stakes were different.
Portland winning the final regular-season head-to-head meeting isn't a fluke or a statistical coincidence. It's confirmation that their defensive system is capable of disrupting Phoenix's offense even in a healthy setting. Against this depleted version of the Suns, the case only gets stronger.
Injuries and Availability
Phoenix is navigating a personnel situation that borders on crisis for a Play-In game. Devin Booker is out (ankle), Grayson Allen is out (hamstring), Dillon Brooks is out (hand), Royce O'Neale is out (knee), and Jordan Goodwin is out (ankle). Mark Williams, who has been one of the Suns' more efficient interior options (14.4 PPG on 83.3% shooting over his last five games), is listed as questionable with a foot injury. Jalen Green, Collin Gillespie, and Haywood Highsmith are all also questionable. In a best-case scenario where all four questionables suit up, Phoenix is still a profoundly different team than the one that posted a 45-37 record over the full season. Ryan Dunn and the available supporting cast will need to absorb roles and minutes they have not been asked to handle in stakes situations of this magnitude.
Portland enters in better shape, with Avdija active and managing his back on a game-by-game basis — he played 33 minutes and delivered a 25-point, 10-assist performance against Sacramento less than 24 hours before this tip-off. Sharpe's minutes restriction is the primary limiting factor for Portland's depth, and Jerami Grant is out with an undisclosed injury. The Blazers are not at full strength, but they are substantially healthier than the opponent they're facing.
The Picks
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers +2
Take Portland +2. This line reflects an essentially even game on paper, and the data heavily favors the Blazers when you factor in the actual roster conditions. Portland is 7-3 in their last 10 games against a schedule that included legitimate playoff competition, their defense is allowing just 105.2 points per game in that stretch, and Avdija is playing at an All-NBA level entering this game. Phoenix is missing four core rotation players, with four more listed as questionable. The Suns hold home court, which matters, and they went 25-16 at the Mortgage Matchup Center this season — that's real. But home court advantage shrinks considerably when the best player on the floor in that building is Deni Avdija in a Trail Blazers uniform rather than Devin Booker in a Suns jersey. Portland won the last meeting in this building by 15. The edge goes to Portland to cover.
Total: Under 217.5
Take the Under 217.5. Two factors push this strongly toward the low end. First, Portland's defensive numbers over the last 10 games — 105.2 points allowed per game — suggest they have the capacity to compress Phoenix's offense into the low-to-mid 100s, particularly against a Suns team missing its primary scorer and two perimeter defenders. Second, Phoenix's offensive ceiling without Booker and Allen is structurally capped. Their remaining available players are role players being elevated to lead offensive roles they haven't been asked to fill. The H2H average total of 220.3 points across three meetings already trends low, and the February 23rd meeting that most resembles tonight's conditions produced just 169 combined points. We're not predicting a defensive clinic of that magnitude, but two playoff-caliber defensive systems in an elimination game, with Phoenix's offense compromised by injury, points firmly toward the under.
Final Score Prediction
Portland Trail Blazers 110, Phoenix Suns 106
Portland wins a close, grinding game in Phoenix and claims the 8th seed. Avdija leads the Blazers with 28-30 points and nine assists, Holiday adds 18-20 points, and Clingan controls the paint against a Phoenix frontcourt working without its full complement of bodies. Phoenix fights to the end — home court and competitive urgency keep this from being a blowout — but the sheer volume of roster depletion is too much to overcome against a Portland team that has been playing its best basketball of the season. The under hits as Phoenix's inability to manufacture offense through its depleted backcourt keeps the scoring environment below 220.
All odds from SX Bet as of 2026-04-13T21:20:53Z. SX Bet charges 0% commission on straight bets. Stats sourced from ESPN. Injury data current as of 2026-04-13T21:20:53Z.
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