NFL Sunday Week 11 Prediction, Preview, Picks

Week 11 of Sunday Football brings some elite matches starting at 1:00 p.m. ET. Check out this edition of The Betting Report for all the betting alpha you need to lock in some winning trades today! 

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⏰ 1:00PM ET - Ravens vs. Steelers

To kick off week 11 Sunday Football, we are covering the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) who are hosted by the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2).

Preview

The Baltimore Ravens have secured victories in their last two games and seven out of their last eight after starting 0-2, highlighted by a thrilling 35-34 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. Lamar Jackson threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns, bringing his total to 14 touchdowns over the past four games as he aims for consecutive NFL MVP awards.

Although the Pittsburgh Steelers boast a strong defence, this matchup features one of the highest projected point totals for the week. The Steelers are considered underdogs, as many believe the Ravens have established themselves as the main AFC North contenders. However, this match should answer that question.

Prediction

Expect the Ravens to show why they are the top AFC North contenders and cover the spread in a high-scoring match.

🔒 Spread: Ravens -3.0

🔒 Total: Over 48.5

⏰ 4:25PM ET - Chiefs vs. Bills

For one of the most exciting games in the 2024 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) are hosted by the Buffalo Bills (8-2)

Preview

Kansas City heads into this matchup fresh off another stunning victory against the Broncos last week, where they blocked what would have been a game-winning field goal from Denver as time ran out. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are riding a five-game winning streak, with an average margin of victory exceeding 12.2 points, positioning them as a significant threat to Andy Reid's team in their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive championship.

Similar to last season, the Chiefs' offense has depended on late-game heroics and Patrick Mahomes' ability to perform in critical third and fourth downs to secure victories. While it might seem logical to bet against this impressive streak of good fortune in this game and beyond, wagering that Mahomes' magic will diminish is ultimately a losing proposition over time, as many professional bettors discovered during last year’s playoffs.

We know the Bills offence intends to focus on the run during early downs, particularly with a depleted receiving core. This gives Steve Spagnuolo’s defence a clear advantage, as Kansas City ranks among the top five teams in DVOA against the run. In addition to the injuries affecting Buffalo’s offence, there’s also a significant coaching edge in this matchup. It’s tough to have confidence in Bills head coach Sean McDermott to make the right decisions in critical moments late in games, especially given his history of faltering in such situations.

Prediction

Expect Mahomes to do what Mahomes does in these underdog situations and cover the spread in a low-scoring match.

🔒 Spread: Chiefs +2.0

🔒 Total: Under 46.0

⏰ 8:20PM ET - Bengals vs. Chargers

To finish off NFL Sunday, we have the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) at SoFi Stadium.

Preview

Joe Burrow hasn't faced a pass defence as strong as the Chargers, and the Chargers haven't encountered a quarterback of Burrow's caliber. While some might argue against this, pointing to their matchup with Patrick Mahomes in Week 4, it's clear that the Chiefs’ offence isn't as explosive this season. Regardless, it will be exciting to see which side prevails when the Bengals' offence takes the field.

The Chargers' defence has been outstanding, ranking first in points allowed per game (13.1) and points per play (0.222), and they sit in the top five in several other metrics, including opponent third-down conversion rate, yards per pass, and turnover margin. This is a complete turnaround from previous seasons, as Jim Harbaugh has his team playing with both aggression and discipline.

Prediction

Expect the Chargers to lock it down against the struggling Bengals in a low-scoring matchup.

🔒 Spread: Chargers -1.5

🔒 Total: Under 47.5