College Football Betting Strategies

American College Football is powered by its passionate fans and strong culture - so what does that mean for bettors? Everyone knows betting with emotion is not the way to make money but most of us can’t help ourselves. Often the excitement of watching your team play knowing if they win you will make back all the money you spent on beer that day is too fun to pass up. But when it doesn’t work the majority of the time, bettors are caught questioning themselves.

This post will provide bettors with three strategies to enhance their college football picks so they can continue to enjoy watching the game they love while making money on the sidelines!

1. Look For Unpopular Teams 

Keeping an eye on teams from conferences like the Mountain West or American Athletic Conference can be advantageous. Bookmakers often struggle to set accurate lines for these games and may take longer to adjust. Instead of being just another bettor weighing in on a marquee matchup, focus on under-the-radar players or injuries that could impact the game.

Since 2013, the top five teams against the spread are Clemson, Temple, Alabama, Navy, and Oklahoma State. Conversely, the bottom five include Old Dominion, Charlotte, Liberty, Connecticut, and Coastal Carolina. Notably, only a handful of these teams come from the power conferences that attract the most attention. These teams have consistently covered or failed to cover spreads over several years, while lines for more prominent teams have been adjusted more accurately. Well-known teams like Miami, Notre Dame, and Ohio State have performance records that are closer to 50% over recent years, largely because oddsmakers and the betting public are more informed about their abilities.

2. Bet on Coaches

Certain coaches can consistently cover the spread, especially when they’re not heavily favoured. David Shaw covered the spread 63% of the time at Stanford and Mike Gundy covers 54% at Oklahoma State. Famous head coach, Nick Saban covered the spread 52.3% of the time through his career with Alabama. 

There are various reasons why some coaches excel at covering the spread. Nick Saban’s meticulous preparation helps his teams perform well on the road, where he boasts a 27-18-0 ATS record. Paul Johnson’s triple-option offense is particularly challenging for teams to defend, as evidenced by his 24-18 ATS record in non-conference games. Mike Gundy’s unconventional coaching style has led to Oklahoma State being underestimated for years, providing additional value.

3. Increase Unit Size Early in the Season

There’s significant value to be found in early-season matchups featuring highly publicized teams. Bookmakers can’t predict how the departure of a key receiver will impact a quarterback, how crucial a graduated lineman was to the running game, or how coaching changes will affect a team's performance.

Since college football lacks a preseason, it can take time for newly formed teams to gel and work effectively together. In Week 1, consider taking the points, especially for teams experiencing significant turnover in key positions or those riding a wave of hype. If a lot of buzz surrounds a team before the season, and they’re facing a large spread in their opener, that could indicate value.