NFL Week 5: TNF Preview, Prediction, Picks

SX Intern
Oct 7, 2024
2 min read

For week 5 of TNF we'll be seeing Saints vs. Chiefs, live at 8:15PM ET! Check out this edition of The Betting Report for or all the betting alpha you need to lock in some winning trades tonight!

⏰ 8:15PM ET - Saints vs. Chiefs

Pre-Match Overview

The New Orleans Saints (2-2) will travel to Arrowhead to face off against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (4-0). The moneyline odds on SX Bet are set at Saints 3.15 (+215) and Chiefs 1.42 (-238) with the spread standing as Saints +5.5 at -104 and Chiefs -5.5 at +101.

The Saints and Chiefs both hold a record of 3-1-0 (75%) against the spread but the Saints have found a way to hit the overs with a 3-1-0 (75%) record as opposed to the Chiefs’ 2-2-0 (50%). SX Bet has set the total to 43 with the Over at 1.91 (-110) and the under at 2.05 (+105).

Preview

It is hard to believe the KC Chiefs remain undefeated after Injuries have taken a toll on their skill group, a mid-performing offence, and Patrick Mahomes is on track for the worst statistical season of his career. Mahomes is currently averaging the lowest passing yards per attempt of his career at 5.1. He's also taking deep shots less frequently than ever before, and his completion percentage under pressure stands at a disappointing 35.7%, the second-lowest of his career. However, if there is one thing the defending Super Bowl champions and current Super Bowl favourites know how to do, it is win games.

While Kansas City has excelled defensively, New Orleans has been even more impressive. No team is allowing fewer touchdowns per drive than the Saints. They rank third in takeaways, sixth in defensive success rate, and seventh in expected points added per play when excluding garbage time. New Orleans’ offence made headlines in the NFL after scoring over 40 points in two games during the first two weeks. However, they've struggled to find success since then, managing only 12 points against the Eagles in Week 3 and 22 points against the Falcons last Sunday.

The Chiefs will likely look to replicate the Eagles' game plan, which generated significant pressure up the middle, exploiting the Saints' vulnerable interior. Like many quarterbacks, Derek Carr tends to falter under pressure, and this season has been no different.